NFL playoff picture: Bills replace Bengals as projected AFC wild card

Every week for the duration of the 2023 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide real-time updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the schedule (through Thursday’s game or Saturday’s, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on the evening of Jan. 7.

Here’s where things stand at the moment:

NFL playoff picture heading into Week 16

AFC playoff picture

x – 1. Baltimore Ravens (11-3), AFC North leaders: The first AFC club to 11 wins, Baltimore was also the first in the conference to clinch a playoff berth after Sunday night’s victory at Jacksonville. But retaining the No. 1 seed won’t get any easier in the coming weeks – particularly a Christmas to be spent in the Bay Area. But if they beat San Francisco and the Browns lose, the Ravens will be division champs. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers

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2. Miami Dolphins (10-4), AFC East leaders: A team that doesn’t own a win over anyone with a winning record in 2023 hits the serious part of its season with three formidable opponents approaching. Still, win out, and the Fins clinch home field and the bye. Beat Dallas, and Miami locks into the field. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills

3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5), AFC West leaders: A 7-2 record in AFC games and wins over Miami and Jacksonville keep K.C. viable to play a sixth consecutive AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium. But the Chiefs probably need to run the table. At minimum, a win on Christmas against Las Vegas secures the division. Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Chargers

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6), AFC South leaders: They’ve lost three in a row and four of six … meaning they’re really trying to hang on for the division crown as opposed to achieving much else in terms of playoff positioning. Fortunately, the Jags currently hold the tiebreakers to hold off the Texans and Colts – they swept Indy – who have both pulled even at 8-6. Remaining schedule: at Buccaneers, vs. Panthers, at Titans

5. Cleveland Browns (9-5), wild card No. 1: They’ve won two in a row … barely. Though operating above the rest of the conference’s wild-card fray, the Brownies can no longer sew up a spot this weekend due to wins by the Bills and Steelers. Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. Jets, at Bengals

6. Buffalo Bills (9-6), wild card No. 2: Despite all the adversity, on and off the field, there’s a strong heartbeat here – and this team persevered Saturday night to rejoin the playoff field. The division crown is even a possibility if the Bills can sweep their final two games and hope Miami also loses to Dallas or Baltimore before Week 18. Either way, win out, and Buffalo is in. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, at Dolphins

7. Indianapolis Colts (8-6), wild card No. 3: Win out, and they’re in. Remaining schedule: at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Texans

8. Houston Texans (8-6), out of playoff field: Win out, and they’re in. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, vs. Titans, at Colts

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7), out of playoff field: If nothing else, they took a big step toward salvaging Mike Tomlin’s career-long streak of non-losing seasons as a head coach after completing a season sweep of Cincinnati. Still, head-to-head losses to Houston and Indianapolis are among Pittsburgh’s problems. Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, at Ravens

10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7), out of playoff field:And the crash back to earth. A winless mark (0-5) against the division and a 3-7 record in conference are shaping as season-killing detriments … to say nothing of an upcoming trip to Arrowhead. Remaining schedule: at Chiefs, vs. Browns

11. Denver Broncos (7-7), out of playoff field: They got run out of the building last weekend in Detroit, resembling an early season version of themselves devoid of playoff hope. A win would have vaulted the Broncos into the AFC’s third wild-card spot. Now? A 4-5 record in AFC games parks them here … and in danger of falling further. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, vs. Chargers, at Raiders

NFC playoff picture

y – 1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3), NFC West champions: They became the first team to clinch a berth in Week 14 and, on Sunday, the first to wrap up a division in 2023. And, with wins in hand against the Eagles and Cowboys, the Niners continue to march toward home-field advantage … but will get a stern test from Baltimore on Monday. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams

x – 2. Dallas Cowboys (10-4), NFC East leaders: A combination of losses by other teams secured a playoff spot for ‘America’s Team’ prior to kickoff last weekend … and then the Cowboys went out and played like they had nothing at stake in an embarrassing setback. But Seattle’s defeat of Philadelphia on Monday and a better division record than the Eagles (for now) puts Dallas in first place. Remaining schedule: at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Commanders

3. Detroit Lions (10-4), NFC North leaders: A win on Christmas Eve will secure the Lions’ first-ever NFC North title. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, at Cowboys, vs. Vikings

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7), NFC South leaders: A huge win at Green Bay coupled with an Atlanta loss – plus New Orleans’ defeat Thursday night – serves the surging Bucs well. Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars, vs. Saints, at Panthers

x – 5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4), wild card No. 1: They guaranteed an opportunity to defend their conference crown but haven’t looked up to the task as of late. The Eagles and Cowboys will go deep into the tiebreakers if both win out, but Philly still controls the road to the division crown. Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants

6. Los Angeles Rams (8-7), wild card No. 2: Thursday night’s defeat of the Saints elevates LA to the sixth spot. Win out, and they’ll snatch a wild card. Remaining schedule: at Giants, at 49ers

7. Minnesota Vikings (7-7), wild card No. 3: Their 6-3 record in conference games maintains this precarious perch. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions

8. Seattle Seahawks (7-7), out of playoff field: Big as Monday’s come-from-behind defeat of Philly is, it only gained the ‘Hawks one spot. Dropping both games to the Rams will be a lingering issue, but a 6-5 conference mark would trump the Saints. Remaining schedule: at Titans, vs. Steelers, at Cardinals

9. New Orleans Saints (7-8), out of playoff field: They lost control of their postseason path with Thursday night’s loss. Gotta have upcoming game at Tampa. Remaining schedule: at Buccaneers, vs. Falcons

10. Atlanta Falcons (6-8), out of playoff field: They’ve gone from fourth in the conference to here in a matter of two weeks. Only a slim Week 2 defeat of the Pack leaves them here. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Bears, at Saints

11. Green Bay Packers (6-8), out of playoff field: After beating the Lions and Chiefs, they’ve lost to the Giants and Bucs. So much for benefiting from what was mathematically the league’s easiest five-game schedule down the stretch. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at Vikings, vs. Bears

x – clinched playoff berth

y – clinched division title