Forget about random metrics and data points and the eye test, the prisoner of the moment a la carte for the College Football Playoff selection committee.
Boise State has nailed them all.
The No. 10 Broncos made it very easy for the committee with Friday night’s 21-7 victory over No. 19 UNLV for the Mountain West Conference championship. They left no doubt.
The Broncos have 12 wins. They’ve won a conference championship. Their two wins against the Rebels are more victories against College Football Playoff top 25 team than any of the four teams playing in the Big 12 and ACC championship games.
They’ve reached every moving metric of the committee – including the best loss of anyone in the field – and left no doubt: they deserve one of the four first-round byes for the highest-ranked conference champions.
Do the right thing, College Football selection committee. Give the Broncos a first round bye.
This isn’t about star tailback Ashton Jeanty’s remarkable, Heisman Trophy-worthy season. Or the biggest win in school history.
This is about a program that for the last two decades has been pressing the BCS and CFP postseasons, and for one reason or another, never reached it. Now that the Broncos have reached every moving CFP metric, there’s no avoiding it.
If by some chance Boise State doesn’t receive a bye, a ranking in the top eight – guaranteeing a first round home game – is a lock. At this point, it’s impossible for the committee to use Boise State’s conference schedule against it, when the committee hasn’t used Indiana and Penn State’s weak conference schedules against them. Or even SMU’s.
No matter what happens Saturday, Boise State will have more wins than the Big 12 champion (Arizona State or Iowa State), and only SMU can reach 12 wins from the ACC.
And since the CFP committee isn’t focusing on strength of schedule and has clearly favored wins above all else (hello, Indiana), we’re left with comparing losses. No one in the nation has a better loss than Boise State, which lost at No. 1 Oregon on the final play of the game.
The Ducks needed a punt return for a touchdown, a kickoff return for a touchdown and a game-winning field goal to secure a controversial victory. Officials stayed with the call on the field that Oregon’s Noah Whittington didn’t drop the football before crossing the end zone (when he clearly did) to tie the game at 34, and later in the fourth quarter, the game-winning drive included a questionable pass interference penalty moved the ball to the Boise State 28.
The best win among the other four teams from the ACC and Big 12 is a win over Brigham Young for Arizona State. That’s the only ranked win by the four schools. A win by the Sun Devils against Iowa State would equal Boise State’s two wins ranked victories.
Above all of those metrics and data points: Boise State began the week five spots ahead of No. 15 ASU, and six spots ahead of No. 16 Iowa State. Only SMU, at No. 8, is ahead of the Broncos — but SMU’s win over Clemson would be its first.
There’s no way out of this now for the committee. They’ve boxed themselves in.
The only answer is the easy one: give Boise State a first-round bye.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.