The expansion to the 12-team College Football Playoff could not have arrived at a better time for the CFP committee.
If you thought the committee had difficult decisions for a potential 12-team field, it looks even more challenging to decide based on a four-team field. There has never been a two-loss team to make the CFP field, but the committee would have had to make a difficult decision regarding conference champions from the SEC, Big 12 and ACC this season.
Here’s a look at how a potential four-team College Football Playoff field would look using the final CFP rankings from the committee:
Projecting a four-team College Football Playoff
Oregon (13-0)
Georgia (11-2)
Texas (11-2)
Penn State (11-2)
The first two teams are in and likely without much debate. Oregon was the only undefeated FBS team this season and won the Big Ten Conference, which featured four playoff teams in the 12-team bracket. The Ducks belong and can prove in the next month that they are the best team in college football this season.
Georgia is also a shoo-in as the SEC champion, as historically, the SEC champion has not been left out of the bracket. It is also hard to argue that the Big Ten and the SEC were not the two best conferences in college football this season.
After that, projecting the field gets more challenging, but going off the committee’s final rankings, Texas and Penn State make it two teams for the SEC and Big Ten, respectively. The Longhorns’ only two losses this season came at the hands of the Bulldogs, including a 22-19 overtime loss on Saturday. It would be hard to leave Texas out of the field.
Likewise, the Nittany Lions pushed the best team in college football to its final drive before the Ducks could kneel out the clock for the victory. Penn State’s two losses for the season were to Ohio State and Oregon.
Who is snubbed from the 4-team College Football Playoff?
Notre Dame is the first team out of the field with an 11-1 record and the No. 5 overall ranking. The Fighting Irish won 10 straight to end the season, but a loss to Northern Illinois in a pay game could be a reason for the committee to leave them out. The Fighting Irish were not eligible for a first-round bye due to not playing in a conference.
The No. 6 Buckeyes and No. 7 Tennessee would be the following two teams left out, as would an 11-1 Indiana program. Neither team played in a conference championship game, like Notre Dame. It would be hard to justify Ohio State or Tennessee over Penn State and Texas, respectively, as neither played in the conference championship game.
In a four-team field, ACC champion Clemson and Big 12 champion Arizona State would also receive much more consideration as conference champions. But the Tigers lost three games and the Sun Devils were not as highly regarded. Arizona State finished No. 12 in the final rankings, while Clemson was No. 16.