Who will win the 2025 WNBA Finals? Both the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury have been here before. But the Mercury’s roster looked a lot different.
It be the Aces fourth Finals appearance since 2020 and the Mercury’s first since 2021. The Aces won back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2023. The Mercury’s last title was with Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner in 2014. Phoenix returned only two players from last season’s roster.
The championship series is expanding to best-of-seven, which will follow a 2-2-1-1-1 format that will see the higher seed Aces host the first two games at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas. It tips off at 8 p.m. ET Friday. The series will shift to PHX Arena in Phoenix for Game 3 and 4.
Our experts make their picks:
Who will win and in how many how many games
Nancy Armour, USA Today columnist: Las Vegas Aces in 7
Meghan L. Hall, For the Win staff writer: Las Vegas Aces in 6
Cydney Henderson, USA TODAY national women’s sports reporter: Phoenix Mercury in 6
What is that team’s biggest advantage?
Armour: A’ja Wilson. Need I say more? She is the best player on the planet — I said what I said — and she can change a game in so many different ways. She also has infused teammate Jackie Young with a confidence and boldness she hasn’t had in playoffs past, and the two of them combined is too much to overcome.
Hall: Everyone rightfully rants and raves about A’ja Wilson being the key to the Aces, but, I think that’s underestimating Las Vegas’ guard play. Jackie Young is a walking double-double and if Chelsea Gray gets hot, she can pose the same threat. The Aces also have veterans Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans off the bench. If Loyd and Evans can each contribute at least 10 points a game, the Aces might win their third championship.
Henderson: The Mercury have embraced the underdog mentality all season long. No one picked them to defeat the defending champion New York Liberty or the Minnesota Lynx, yet Phoenix outlasted them both with their stout defense and physicality. Phoenix’s Big 3 of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper has fueled their postseason run, but the series will ultimately come down to whose trio performs better. Will it be Phoenix’s Big 3 or will the Aces’ trio of A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray soar?
What is the underdog’s biggest weakness?
Armour: Experience. Impressive a job as Nate Tibbetts and the Mercury have done coming together, the WNBA Finals are different. While Phoenix’s big three have all made the WNBA Finals, Kahleah Copper is the only one who’s won one. That matters against the Aces, which still have the core of their 2022 and 2023 title teams.
Hall: If Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper can’t get a basket, where else are the points going to come from? It’s easy to assume it might be Sami Whitcomb or DeWanna Bonner, who both had big moments leading up to the WNBA Finals, but there hasn’t been a steady answer to that question. If that happens, can head coach Nate Tibbetts make the adjustments to find someone?
Henderson: The Aces were pushed to the brink of elimination in both rounds of the postseason, first by the Seattle Storm and then by the injury-plagued Indiana Fever in overtime. That’s a cause for concern as the Aces meet the surging and fully healthy Mercury in the Finals. Yes, the Aces’ core has experience, but we can’t discount the five combined WNBA titles between the Mercury’s roster. Plus, Alyssa Thomas’ two trips to the WNBA Finals, including the 2022 loss to Wilson and the Aces. This can be the year Thomas breaks through.
2025 WNBA Finals schedule
*if necessary