Now that the College Football Playoff committee have officially issued their first set of rankings, the contenders theoretically know what they need to do over these final four weeks to make sure they’re invited to the party. In truth, most of them were already well aware of the task before them, but we have to fill those TV slots somehow, right?
In any event, the rankings are sure to look considerably different next time thanks to what promises to be an action-packed Week 11 slate. Our list of the seven games you don’t want to miss includes a pair of Friday night contests, but we’ll begin with a top-10 clash in the Big 12.
No. 8 Brigham Young at No. 9 Texas Tech
Time/TV: Saturday, noon ET, ABC.
Why watch: This might turn out to be the first of two meetings between the Cougars and Red Raiders, who have separated themselves from most of the Big 12 pack. BYU has a trip to Cincinnati still on its dance card so would like to have this win in hand, but Texas Tech will be just as motivated to reclaim a share of the league lead. Red Raiders QB Behren Morton was a bit rusty in the opening moments of his return to the lineup at Kansas State last week, but the team was eventually able to take advantage of the Wildcats’ charity. The Cougars aren’t likely to be as generous with the ball, though they might have to take some chances through the air if QB Bear Bachmeier and RB LJ Martin are held in check on the ground. Names to know on defense include Cougars DB Faletau Satuala and Red Raiders LB Jacob Rodriguez.
Why it could disappoint: It probably won’t given BYU’s penchant for nail-biters. But it’s possible the Red Raiders’ defense will prove to be the strongest unit in the game as it was at Utah a few weeks ago.
No. 6 Oregon at No. 24 Iowa
Time/TV: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
Why watch: This is a huge contest on several fronts. The Ducks are still in need of quality results despite their lofty ranking. The Hawkeyes, who nearly toppled Indiana on this field a month ago, have another opportunity to play themselves into the championship mix. QB Mark Gronowski has provided a needed upgrade to the Hawkeyes’ offense, though it’s been his ability to finish drives by land that has made the biggest difference. He’ll likely be monitored by Ducks LB Bryce Boettcher when his group reaches the red zone. Oregon QB Dante Moore wasn’t as efficient as usual in his most recent outing against Wisconsin. A fast start would help, but that is easier said than done against the stingy Iowa defense, featuring DB Zach Lutmer and LB Karson Sharar.
Why it could disappoint: It’s a Hawkeyes’ home game, so there aren’t likely to be many huge plays. But the momentum can turn at any time, especially in the kicking game, so the level of drama should remain high throughout.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 17 Missouri
Time/TV: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC.
Why watch: Having climbed to the top of the arduous SEC mountain, the Aggies must survive November as the hunted. Up next are the Tigers, damaged but not completely out of the picture. With Beau Pribula’s season cut short, the Missouri offense is now in the hands of freshman QB Matt Zollers, who nearly delivered an improbable comeback victory in relief against Vanderbilt. Having last week off could somewhat ease his transition into the starting role, though the gameplan will still undoubtedly lean on RB Ahmad Hardy as much as possible. Aggies LB Taurean York will lead the effort to keep him contained. A&M QB Marcel Reed isn’t afraid to let it fly with weapons like WRs Mario Craver and K.C. Concepcion in his arsenal, but Tigers DB Santana Banner can make him pay for carelessness.
Why it could disappoint: We should know fairly quickly if it will. If the short-handed Tigers aren’t able to move the chains and keep their defense fresh, this could get away. The Aggies would like to eliminate the home crowd as soon as possible.
Northwestern at No. 21 Southern California
Time/TV: Friday, 9 p.m. ET, Fox.
Why watch: USC is a playoff long shot at best, though the Trojans will get a crack at both Iowa and Oregon in the next couple of weeks. First, however, they need to take care of the Wildcats, who are just a win away from bowl eligibility but have no gimmes remaining on their schedule. The Wildcats don’t score points in bunches, and QB Preston Stone can be pick prone when under duress. USC DEs Braylan Shelby and Kameryn Crawford will look to provide such pressure. Trojans QB Jayden Maiava and WR Makai Lemon can strike at any time, so Northwestern DB Robert Fitzgerald should again be busy as he leads the effort to minimize long gainers.
Why it could disappoint: Even with the Trojans’ defensive shortcomings, the Wildcats would be hard pressed to generate enough points to stage a comeback if USC grabs a comfortable lead. USC could also bury itself under an avalanche of turnovers, but that seems less likely.
Tulane at No. 23 Memphis
Time/TV: Friday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why watch: The crowded race for the American championship will gain some clarity this week. A Memphis victory here would give the Tigers the head-to-head advantage against the Green Wave and South Florida. Tulane has a manageable finishing stretch after this week but needs to avoid a second league loss. Tigers QB Brendon Lewis is expected to be a full go this week, though his fearless approach can expose him to punishment. He’d therefore do well to steer clear of Tulane EDGE Harvey Dyson. Green Wave QB Jake Retzlaff is also not afraid to take off, though he’s coming off a subpar outing in a loss at Texas-San Antonio. He must beware of Memphis DB DeMarco Ward, who has a pair of pick-sixes on the season.
Why it could disappoint: It seems like that’s largely up to the Green Wave, whose two losses have been quite decisive. A multi-score lead might not be safe either way, but a Memphis rally is easier to envision.
LSU at No. 4 Alabama
Time/TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC.
Why watch: As these long-time SEC powers finally meet, they find themselves in diametrically opposite situations. The Crimson Tide have overcome an early setback and are back in the conference driver’s seat, while the Bayou Bengals are in interim coach limbo. The defensive side of the ball for the most part has not been the issue for LSU, and veterans like LB Harold Perkins Jr. can still pose a challenge for Crimson Tide QB Ty Simpson. But WRs Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams probably won’t be shut down for four quarters, so Tigers QB Garrett Nussmeier is going to have to find a spark somewhere. He’d do well to keep the ball well clear of Tide CB Zabien Brown, who has made his share of game-changing plays in his Tuscaloosa career.
Why it could disappoint: With the exception of the Vanderbilt game, LSU hasn’t shown the ability to keep up in a high-scoring contest, and even in that one they weren’t able to do enough. The Crimson Tide figure to be all business.
Navy at No. 10 Notre Dame
Time/TV: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Why watch: While it would have been advantageous to the Fighting Irish if Navy were still unscathed and ranked for this encounter, a win here would still help Notre Dame’s overall body of work. The Midshipmen continue a difficult closing stretch with a chance at a truly special season still possible. As usual when these teams get together, Notre Dame will enjoy a considerable physical advantage on offense, which should mean big numbers for RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Navy LB MarcAnthony Parker is quick to lend support, so any air cover QB C.J. Carr can provide will be a bonus. The Midshipmen have the personnel to move the ball themselves, but QB Blake Horvath and his blockers must play a nearly mistake-free game to allow RB Alex Tecza and SB Eli Heidenreich room to operate. DE Boubacar Traore can be a disruptive force on the Notre Dame front.
Why it could disappoint: As we’ve seen over the years in this series, the execution has to be just about perfect for Navy if it is to make a game of it. Any minor miscues become magnified given the physical superiority of the Fighting Irish.