Despite the drastic changes to its roster in the offseason, two things still seemed certain about Notre Dame entering this women’s college basketball season: The Fighting Irish would make the NCAA Tournament and Hannah Hidalgo would win ACC Player of the Year.
Both of those things now seem to be in jeopardy after Notre Dame lost for the fourth time in five games on Thursday night, falling on the road to Cal 80-69.
Coach Niele Ivey’s team is now 13-8 on the season and 5-5 in ACC play. In USA Today Sports’ latest bracketology released on Wednesday, the Irish were projected to be a No. 8 seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament. But the loss to the Golden Bears has impacted many of Notre Dame’s key metrics considered by the selection committee, with its NET falling to 32 and its WAB rank decreasing to 41. Notre Dame also took a dip in ratings by Her Hoop Stats and Bart Torvik.
An updated projection by USA Today Sports now has Notre Dame as a No. 9 seed, four spots above the “Last Four Byes” section of the NCAA Tournament. ESPN agrees, slotting the Irish in as a No. 9 seed in its latest bracketology.
Simply put, the Fighting Irish playing in March Madness is no longer a guarantee this season. Ivey’s team can’t afford any bad losses, and Sunday’s showdown at Stanford is looking like a must-win. Of the seven games remaining on Notre Dame’s schedule after they face the Cardinal, four of them are against teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament: Virginia Tech, NC State, Syracuse and Louisville.
Since 1996, Notre Dame has missed the NCAA Tournament just once. In 2021, Ivey’s first season following Muffet McGraw, the Irish were left out of the field of 68 after going 10-10 overall and 8-7 in ACC play. But that was a young team that played in a year where COVID-19 impacted the sport, tightening schedules and forcing players to miss games. That squad also wasn’t equipped with Hidalgo, a two-time All-American and reigning ACC Player of the Year.
Even if Notre Dame makes the NCAA Tournament, it doesn’t look like a team capable of making the second weekend. The last 14 times the Irish made the draw, they made the Sweet 16 — a run that dates back to 2010.
How did one of the sport’s iconic blue bloods fall into this situation? The Irish have two big problems.
The first is an issue of roster construction and management. Notre Dame saw three of its starters from last year’s team get drafted by WNBA teams: Sonia Citron, Maddy Westbeld and Liatu King. A fourth starter, Olivia Miles, transferred and is now playing at an All-American level at TCU. Another key contributor, center Kate Koval, transferred to LSU.
And Notre Dame failed to replace their collective production. Ivey brought in a handful of transfers — Malaya Cowles from Wake Forest, Vanessa de Jesus from Duke, Iyana Moore from Vanderbilt, and Gisela Sanchez from Kansas State — but none of them have matched the talent or production of the players lost. A highly touted freshman recruit, Leah Macy, is redshirting this season due to an injury. She was the only freshman added to the team. The Irish’s pool of talent was even further depleted when KK Bransford went down with a lower body injury in December.
Ivey also seemingly doesn’t believe that the four players at the end of her bench are capable of helping the Irish in ACC games. Kelly Ratigan, Bella Tehrani, Jordyn Smith and Luci Jensen are collectively averaging 4.75 minutes a game and each has multiple DNPs on their game logs.
One might argue Notre Dame’s academic standards and admission rates have hindered Ivey in landing talented players through the transfer portal, but that hasn’t stopped the Irish’s football team from being a consistent contender for the College Football Playoff. Schools like Vanderbilt, Duke and Michigan also have similar constraints, and their women’s basketball teams are locks to make the NCAA Tournament this season.
With the roster Ivey has assembled, one thing is obvious: Notre Dame’s defense isn’t good. The Irish rank 314th out of 363 Division I teams in shooting defense, allowing opponents to make 42.9% of their shots from the floor. The Irish are also 275th in 3-point defense (32.1%) and points allowed per scoring attempt (1.01). Notre Dame is also 273rd in defensive rebounding, grabbing just 23.7 of their opponent’s misses per game.
Even with all of this, junior guard Hannah Hidalgo is putting up superstar stats, averaging 24.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 5.6 steals per game. She does everything for Notre Dame and is second nationally in scoring and first in steals.
But will she retain her ACC Player of the Year award?
In a year where Notre Dame was living up to its long established standards, this wouldn’t be a question. However, history shows individual awards for the ACC are typically rewarded to a player whose team is successful.
Since the ACC started handing out a Player of the Year award for women’s basketball in 1984, it has given that award to a player whose team didn’t finish in the top four of the league standings just twice: fifth-place NC State’s Summer Erb in 1999 and sixth-place Syracuse’s Alexis Peterson in 2017.
Entering this weekend, the Irish are ninth in the ACC standings. If Notre Dame’s inconsistency continues, Hidalgo could come up empty on some key accolades in March and the Irish might be watching the NCAA Tournament from home.