Projecting the NFL’s top award winners isn’t quite as difficult as determining who will take home an Academy Award.
While voting for honorees in inherently subjective categories can create some level of variance, the extensive sample size of a 17-game regular-season allows for some clear favorites to emerge for each honor. And while there have been a few surprises over the years, the pre-Super Bowl NFL Honors ceremony typically serves as a coronation for candidates, with the results locked in some time ago.
Nevertheless, with this year’s NFL Honors set to take place Feb. 5 in San Francisco, here is USA TODAY Sports’ rundown of what to expect with our predicted winners in each category:
NFL MVP: Matthew Stafford
Last year gave rise to a rare stir when apparent frontrunner Lamar Jackson lost out to Josh Allen despite claiming the first-team All-Pro nod at quarterback from the same voting panel. It doesn’t seem like similar drama is in store this time around. Stafford and Drake Maye created a healthy – and then unhealthy – debate, but the Los Angeles Rams quarterback seems positioned to beat out the New England Patriots’ second-year signal-caller after winning the first-team All-Pro battle 31-18 (Josh Allen received one vote). Maybe New England’s favorable schedule played a factor, though it’s questionable how much of an advantage that actually conferred on Maye given that the greatest benefit seemed to come from facing subpar quarterbacks. At 37, Stafford still discovered new peaks in his play, particularly in continuing to unlock explosive downfield connections while seldom putting the ball in harm’s way.
Offensive Player of the Year: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The postseason doesn’t factor into awards consideration, so the Seattle Seahawks’ Super Bowl run – and the receiver’s dominant outing over the Rams in the NFC championship game – won’t come into play here. No matter for Smith-Njigba, who should still claim this honor. The third-year pass catcher was central to Seattle’s effort to reimagine its offense in coach Mike Macdonald’s second season, with Smith-Njigba repeatedly delivering huge gains off play-action. His 1,793 receiving yards not only paced the NFL but were three times the total of any other player on the Seahawks’ roster. Rams receiver Puka Nacua made a legitimate run for this award and even bested Smith-Njigba in yards per route run. But Smith-Njigba gets the narrow edge given his outsized importance to his team.
Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett
There’s no mystery as to whether the Cleveland Browns defensive end will earn this recognition for the second time in his career. The only outstanding question is whether he will become only the second player to do so unanimously. After breaking the NFL’s single-season sack record with 23, Garrett might be impossible to deny, as all the other finalists are pass rushers who can’t measure up to his historic levels of disruption. His singular status was only reinforced by the lengths that opposing teams went to in the final four weeks of the season to prevent him from reaching the sack record.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Tetairoa McMillan
This has been arguably the most difficult award to track over the course of the season. Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egubka claimed early front-runner status with his sizzling start, but he cooled off down the stretch. Preseason favorites Cam Ward and Ashton Jeanty couldn’t overcome their teams’ respective deficiencies to remain in front of the pack. Instead, McMillan made a steady but sustainable surge by powering an otherwise listless Carolina Panthers passing attack with 1,014 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. New Orleans Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough created some intrigue down the stretch, but his performance in nine starts likely wasn’t sufficient to overcome McMillan’s more robust body of work.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Carson Schwesinger
Splash plays have routinely been the key in first-year defenders establishing a name for themselves, thereby making this award the territory of edge rushers and cornerbacks. Schwesinger, however, looks poised to become just the second off-ball linebacker in the last decade to emerge as a winner. As a second-round pick of the Browns, the former walk-on at UCLA continued to outshine some of his more lauded peers, establishing himself as a rangy and dependable asset to the defense with a team-high 156 tackles. Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori finished the season as perhaps the most dangerous first-year defender, while edge rushers Abdul Carter and James Pearce Jr. each made a distinct mark. But Schwesinger set the bar with his consistent level of stellar play.
Comeback Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey
No other award has as nebulous criteria as this one. In some years, that’s made it hard to get a handle on a potential winner. This year, things seem fairly straightforward. Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson has a strong case, but McCaffrey, who also is a finalist for MVP and Offensive Player of the Year, bounced back to form for the San Francisco 49ers after missing all but four games last year due to two separate ailments. Long an outlier at a position that has been devalued since his arrival into the league, McCaffrey should add another impressive line to his extensive resume with this award.
Coach of the Year: Mike Vrabel
No category is as loaded as this one, as any finalist would make a fine winner in any given year. And though the postseason doesn’t carry any weight for this award, it’s fitting that it might come down to Vrabel and Mike Macdonald, the Patriots coach’s Super Bowl 60 counterpart with the Seahawks. While Ben Johnson and Liam Coen engineered incredible single-season turnarounds, Vrabel became just the third coach in league history to win 14 games in his first year with a franchise – and he did so with a roster that had its fair share of faults even after an extensive offseason reconfiguration. Expect something of a splintered vote here, with 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan also getting strong consideration for his work navigating a disastrous run of injuries. But Vrabel’s record-tying 10-win improvement in Year 1 likely puts him over the top.
Assistant Coach of the Year: Klint Kubiak
After a run of admittedly chalk picks, maybe there’s some mystery in the final few awards, which lack any consensus surrounding them. Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph could be the pick here after leading the way for the NFL’s most fearsome pass rush, and Josh McDaniels did superlative work in positioning Maye and the rest of the Patriots’ offense to thrive despite some lingering personnel limitations. Kubiak, however, was at the controls for one of this year’s most impressive reworkings with Seattle’s offense, and the unit managed to pull off the high-wire act thanks to his guidance.
Protector of the Year: Joe Thuney
Finally, the offensive linemen get their due. The finalists here make for an intriguing group, with Trent Williams and some other more visible names not in the mix. While a committee of former blocking greats has been instructed only to take into account this season, Thuney would make for a fitting inaugural winner given his accomplished career. But choosing him wouldn’t be a mere reflection of his body of work, as the first-team All-Pro left guard didn’t surrender a sack this season and played an instrumental role in stabilizing a formerly shaky front for Caleb Williams. This one, however, could truly go in any direction.