Every week for the duration of the 2025 regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the NFL’s ever-evolving playoff picture – typically starting Sunday afternoon and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable. And, when the holidays roll around, we’ll be watching then, too).
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized Sunday, Jan. 4.
Here’s where things stand with Week 17 nearly complete:
AFC playoff picture
y − 1. Denver Broncos (13-3), AFC West champions: After surviving the Chiefs on Christmas night, win in Week 18, and Denver gets the top seed … but can’t in Week 17. The Bolts’ loss Saturday wrapped up the Broncos’ first division title in a decade − which was also the last time they won the Super Bowl. Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers
y − 2. New England Patriots (13-3), AFC East champions: After blowing out the Jets on Sunday, they wound up with their first division title since 2019 after Buffalo lost to Philadelphia. The Pats are just a tiebreaker (common games) of sitting atop the conference and could get the top seed in Week 18 if they win and Denver loses. Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins.
x − 3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4), AFC South leaders: They won their eighth straight but need one more to lock up the division. A victory combined with defeats for Denver and New England lands the No. 1 seed in Duval County. Lose, and Houston can keep the AFC South with a win. Remaining schedule: at Titans
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7), AFC North leaders: They failed to win the division crown at Cleveland. Now they’ll have to beat Baltimore in Week 18. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens
x − 5. Houston Texans (11-5), wild card No. 1: They’ve won nine of 10, including eight in a row after Saturday’s triumph over the Chargers, but haven’t been able to overtake similarly surging Jacksonville yet for the top spot in the AFC South. Still, Saturday’s victory over the Bolts clinched at least a wild-card berth for Houston, which has a shot to win the division for a third straight season − now needing just a Week 18 win and loss by the Jags. The Texans’ victory officially eliminated Indianapolis. Their sweep of the Chargers and Bills currently has them sitting in the fifth seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts
x − 6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5), wild card No. 2: Saturday’s stumble against Houston ended their bid to rally for the AFC West title. Now the Bolts will have to chart their postseason path as a wild-card entrant. Remaining schedule: at Broncos
x − 7. Buffalo Bills (11-5), wild card No. 3: Sunday’s oh-so-narrow loss to Philadelphia wiped out their hopes of a sixth straight AFC East title. The Bills fall to the seventh spot due to the Chargers’ two-game advantage (5-1) in the common-games tiebreaker. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets
9. Baltimore Ravens (8-8), in the hunt: (The eliminated Colts are technically in eighth place in the AFC.) Saturday night’s win in Green Bay plus Pittsburgh’s loss means the Steelers and Ravens will vie for the AFC North crown in Week 18. Remaining schedule: at Steelers
NFC playoff picture
x − 1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3), NFC West leaders: Win in Week 18, and they secure the division and NFC’s top seed. Remaining schedule: at 49ers
y − 2. Chicago Bears (11-5), NFC North champions: Green Bay’s loss Saturday night was doubly sweet, as it also wrapped up the division title for Da Bears. However coming up short in Sunday night’s thriller at San Francisco means Chicago can’t get the No. 1 seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions
y – 3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5), NFC East champions: They can’t get into the top spot but could still reach the second seed … which got them to the Super Bowl last season. With Week 16’s defeat of Washington, Philly became the first team this season to wrap up a division in 2025 − and the first to win this division in successive years since they last did it 21 years ago. Remaining schedule: vs. Commanders
4. Carolina Panthers (8-8), NFC South leaders: They blew an opportunity to wrap up the division Sunday. A Week 18 defeat of Tampa Bay will still do the job. Remaining schedule: at Buccaneers
x − 5. San Francisco 49ers (12-4), wild card No. 1: Win out, which would entail completing a season sweep of Seattle on the final weekend of the regular season, and the Niners would get the top seed. Continue winning, and they won’t leave their building again this season − which would mean playing Super Bowl 60 at Levi’s Stadium. A 4-1 record in NFC West games moved them ahead of the Rams last Monday. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks
x − 6. Los Angeles Rams (11-4), wild card No. 2: They became the first team to clinch a playoff spot but lost the pathway to home-field advantage and a first-round bye after failing to sweep Seattle. San Francisco’s win Sunday night ended the possibility of LA winning the NFC West or getting the No. 1 seed. Remaining schedule: at Falcons, vs. Cardinals
x − 7. Green Bay Packers (9-6-1), wild card No. 3: The Lions’ Christmas night loss put the battered Pack into the field. But Saturday night’s loss to Baltimore means Green Bay locks in as the No. 7 seed and won’t play another game at Lambeau Field this season. Remaining schedule: at Vikings
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9), in the hunt: (Their record is actually worse than the Vikings’, Lions’ and Cowboys’ in the overall NFC standings, hence the 11th place designation.) Their loss to lowly Miami would have done them in … had the Panthers not bailed the Bucs out by also losing. Now the teams will face off in Week 18, the winner taking the NFC South crown − assuming Atlanta loses one of its final two games. If all three clubs finish 8-9, the tiebreaker would go to Carolina given the Panthers’ 3-1 record against the other two squads would confer priority. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers
NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 18 (incomplete)
Denver clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed with:
Win
New England clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed with:
Win + Broncos loss
Jacksonville clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed with:
Win + Broncos loss + Patriots loss
Jacksonville clinches AFC South with:
Win
Houston clinches AFC South with:
Win + Jaguars loss
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:
Win or tie
Baltimore clinches AFC North with:
Win
Seattle clinches NFC West and NFC’s No. 1 seed with:
Win or tie
San Francisco clinches NFC West and NFC’s No. 1 seed with:
Win
Carolina clinches NFC South with:
Win or tie
Tampa Bay clinches NFC South with:
Win + one Falcons loss (either Week 17 or 18)
NFL teams eliminated from playoff contention in 2025
x – clinched playoff berth
y – clinched division
z – clinched home-field advantage, first-round bye